Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65a44227814d81d37489d8de6339aaae2bde9dbf901305e4d5e309a05a2a1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 1,700$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 45c | 924.62$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.87 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 45c | 668.89$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 46c | 640.02$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 571.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 489.13$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.24 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 63c | 467.52$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 415.18$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 407.23$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.33 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 394.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 54c | 388.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 304.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…8011backed Under | 57c | 262.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 55c | 231.49$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 44c | 186.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 55c | 176.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 150.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…a0dabacked Over | 45c | 142.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 124.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 97.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 89 | 31.5%28 W · 61 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 56c | 73.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Over | 46c | 57.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4771backed Over | 45c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 54c | 49.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 59.1%137 W · 95 L | -19.7wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 53c | 43.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 763 | 56.1%428 W · 335 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 270 | 47.4%128 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Over | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 32.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 2.5this page
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Team to AdvanceArarat-Armenia FA won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Ararat-Armenia FA (-1.5)Universitatea Craiova CS won
- Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.