Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149dff2591b495318c0a22cb4978daed3a02d268d16b209940a156388231c46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ararat-Armenia FAof Ararat-Armenia FA, Universitatea Craiova CS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 37c | 1,371$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.1 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 36c | 550$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 62c | 510.32$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 64c | 474.06$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.4 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 37c | 390.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.1 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 63c | 354.46$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 63c | 315.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Universitatea Craiova CS | 65c | 298.57$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Universitatea Craiova CS | 33c | 250.82$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…f767backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 63c | 143.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…5501backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 37c | 143.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Universitatea Craiova CS | 11c | 94.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Universitatea Craiova CS | 15c | 87.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 34c | 70.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 56c | 50.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 72c | 39.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Universitatea Craiova CS | 61c | 39.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…106cbacked Ararat-Armenia FA | 71c | 36.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Ararat-Armenia FA | 37c | 28.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Team to Advancethis page
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Ararat-Armenia FA O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Universitatea Craiova CS O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: Ararat-Armenia FA (-1.5)Universitatea Craiova CS won
- Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)Ararat-Armenia FA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.