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Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Ararat-Armenia FAof Universitatea Craiova CS, Ararat-Armenia FA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,734 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Ararat-Armenia FA77c10,499$8,071 inWon+$2,428.061,21936.3%442 W · 777 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Universitatea Craiova CS23c3,600$829 inLost-$828.792,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Universitatea Craiova CS23c2,400$552 inLost-$5521,29049.1%633 W · 657 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Universitatea Craiova CS24c1,246$299 inLost-$2993327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Universitatea Craiova CS22c1,000$220 inLost-$2201,04148%500 W · 541 L+18.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Universitatea Craiova CS23c800$186 inLost-$1861,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Universitatea Craiova CS23c446.44$105 inLost-$104.7532547.7%155 W · 170 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Universitatea Craiova CS22c228.75$51 inLost-$50.891,22245.3%553 W · 669 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Universitatea Craiova CS23c197.92$45 inLost-$44.651,03450.8%525 W · 509 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Universitatea Craiova CS23c182.19$42 inLost-$41.832,43437.3%909 W · 1,525 L-9.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Universitatea Craiova CS24c83$20 inLost-$19.922,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Ararat-Armenia FA76c60$46 inWon+$14.463649.5%315 W · 321 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Ararat-Armenia FA77c40$31 inWon+$9.26454.7%35 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Ararat-Armenia FA76c15$11 inWon+$3.674939.4%295 W · 454 L-23.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.