TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Team Falcons, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked PARIVISION53c11,296$5,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,297.1886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Team Falcons49c10,122$5,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.8912256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION49c8,940$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.8953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked PARIVISION57c6,502$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.9916149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed PARIVISION42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.8716050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked PARIVISION62c5,749$3,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.7310236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Falcons46c5,315$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.3519047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons44c4,628$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.622,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked PARIVISION42c4,503$1,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.4621350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons47c3,775$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.021,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Falcons54c3,767$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.8748954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Falcons46c3,406$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.2714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Falcons59c3,284$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.3513027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons58c3,174$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.6520159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Team Falcons3c2,600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed PARIVISION43c2,258$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.3734468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed PARIVISION45c2,177$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.318075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Falcons61c2,102$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.6425444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked PARIVISION43c2,067$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.111955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Team Falcons59c2,048$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622a…2b59backed Team Falcons1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed PARIVISION52c1,959$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.213036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Team Falcons50c1,803$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.31957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Falcons57c1,800$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02612868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Team Falcons3c1,800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b37…fcd6backed Team Falcons3c1,700$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Team Falcons2c1,700$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e1…5924backed Team Falcons2c1,600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6acc…e6eebacked Team Falcons53c1,462$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc459…7b3fbacked PARIVISION42c1,395$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.452759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+45.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked PARIVISION63c1,354$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.0139660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Team Falcons59c1,350$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80023465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Team Falcons58c1,333$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.417852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…5459backed PARIVISION42c1,114$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.1611051.8%57 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Team Falcons45c1,110$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4117633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Team Falcons56c1,059$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.633441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION41c1,035$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.8455751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION49c1,000$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Falcons57c999.99$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9953652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed Team Falcons56c958.55$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.796963.8%44 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Team Falcons73c919$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.8712862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3342…f908backed Team Falcons67c910.33$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.832759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION55c876.39$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.0580443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Team Falcons59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked PARIVISION41c730.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2313262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Falcons58c603.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35045951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons53c564.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed PARIVISION49c507.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9912147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION50c506.67$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8231545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Team Falcons73c479.45$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed PARIVISION43c466.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.155062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf04…6d6abacked Team Falcons53c455.28$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Falcons44c455.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons44c454.71$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1140014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…5473backed PARIVISION36c450$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2893842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Team Falcons44c441.55$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.281225%3 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION46c437.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5662650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed PARIVISION43c426.54$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8515946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked PARIVISION42c400.29$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.838750.6%44 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Team Falcons42c400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.278648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked PARIVISION59c400$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16525547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd5…8d10backed PARIVISION37c370$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.55127.5%14 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Team Falcons53c361.31$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.797846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed PARIVISION49c360.33$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dd…ea96backed Team Falcons46c327.35$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.333948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked PARIVISION43c320.92$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.9214251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc76b…5fbabacked PARIVISION53c316.15$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.194845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION41c304.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8853844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Team Falcons59c299.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17711647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked PARIVISION50c299$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.519251.6%99 W · 93 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed PARIVISION56c285.71$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.716131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed PARIVISION26c277.13$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.918627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Falcons76c263.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked PARIVISION27c263.15$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8615852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed PARIVISION60c250.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2712965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Team Falcons65c249.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION45c230$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a2c…6962backed Team Falcons53c223.03$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.612142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab9…3facbacked PARIVISION45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Team Falcons56c214.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.023540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons64c200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.716665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Team Falcons58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11614948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10634154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked PARIVISION41c198.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1613238.6%51 W · 81 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6751…0d8abacked PARIVISION42c196.69$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked PARIVISION45c192.14$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6810048%48 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Falcons45c189.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Team Falcons46c187.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.024540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe0b…c415backed PARIVISION54c183.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.641241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2a…2f37backed PARIVISION63c176.9$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3614100%14 W · 0 L+4.9wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0b82…9c30backed PARIVISION56c175.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.051546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0953…91b9backed Team Falcons59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6f…778fbacked Team Falcons57c160.4$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.431662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed PARIVISION59c139.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.83554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Team Falcons51c125.47$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.58330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83d3…a973backed Team Falcons59c125.42$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.