Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 158.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c5928b97903344f7289e9d323758d6fb55eb35117bb5935610c4cffb06768b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,238 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 48c | 5,083$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.76 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,499$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.24 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,414$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.34 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 758.84$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.07 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 401.37$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 69c | 288.73$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 46c | 208.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…d22bbacked Over | 73c | 198.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 31c | 192.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 54c | 183.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…03b9backed Under | 63c | 165.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 143.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 54c | 139.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 114.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 103.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 39c | 84.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Under | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over | 63c | 47.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc605…fc49backed Under | 45c | 44.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Under | 41c | 43.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…4a4ebacked Over | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Over | 47c | 38.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 54c | 34.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 38c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 50c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 158.5this page
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo RocketsToledo Rockets won
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 156.5Under won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-2.5)Toledo Rockets won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-3.5)Toledo Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.