Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980c67d9deb0bc5d64d56984a8f1b5f17f24dfd0e2f7b2919350b97510bc93f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,316 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 54c | 1,836$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.31 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 52c | 1,016$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.21 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d98…4d2dbacked Under | 48c | 947.9$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.91 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 717.48$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.44 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Over | 56c | 708.13$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 402.03$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 247.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 220.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.68 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 128.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 52c | 128.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Over | 53c | 112.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Over | 58c | 101.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Over | 54c | 84.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 47c | 82.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Under | 48c | 75.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 43c | 46.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 54c | 45.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over | 54c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 156.5this page
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo RocketsToledo Rockets won
- Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Toledo Rockets: O/U 158.5Under won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-2.5)Toledo Rockets won
- Spread: Toledo Rockets (-3.5)Toledo Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.