Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46dd477e18c3a6cfc5084dce3bf1995f57bdb21af82d1899168a7069abc68f6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 15c | 4,846$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.07 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,052$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.1 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 14c | 1,016$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Over | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 10c | 599$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 31c | 475.92$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 22c | 284.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 278.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 57c | 266.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 13c | 214.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 20c | 214.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 8c | 203.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 160.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked Over | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6afa…e227backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 59c | 126.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 13c | 93.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Under | 55c | 92.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 18c | 62.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 47c | 61.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 56.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 62c | 55.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…dbe1backed Under | 78c | 44.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…b0b1backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 79c | 39.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 67c | 33.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…038dbacked Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 28.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 64c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…c138backed Under | 77c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 64c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)Pisa SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.