Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21123a9f0679a6cdba159b761f2bf5e9fa05484840b55cdcba189085c3ef6e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 11c | 3,183$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.66 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…f5bdbacked Over | 74c | 802.31$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 9c | 383.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…52eebacked Over | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…a6debacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…098fbacked Under | 26c | 57.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 74c | 46.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Over | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 30c | 38.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 74c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…23ccbacked Over | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)Pisa SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.