TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Trace Esports (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trace Esportsof FunPlus Phoenix, Trace Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2e4…bc51backed FunPlus Phoenix35c28,173$9,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,959.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Trace Esports59c25,729$15,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,645.0410756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed FunPlus Phoenix47c22,857$10,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,676.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Trace Esports60c15,038$9,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,998.2810743.9%47 W · 60 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked FunPlus Phoenix57c5,460$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.157640.8%31 W · 45 L-14.7wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-38.6%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed FunPlus Phoenix1c5,393$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.931010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Trace Esports49c5,275$2,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700.384060%24 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Trace Esports54c4,030$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.85242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed FunPlus Phoenix24c3,390$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.824744.7%21 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Trace Esports49c2,370$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.442653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Trace Esports50c2,072$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.376056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Trace Esports52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked FunPlus Phoenix4c1,879$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.780%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Trace Esports53c1,600$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Trace Esports53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed FunPlus Phoenix51c1,370$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.444755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Trace Esports40c1,241$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed FunPlus Phoenix63c1,200$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Trace Esports40c1,180$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.9812951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked FunPlus Phoenix47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.094542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Trace Esports52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4804353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Trace Esports54c926.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Trace Esports62c779.31$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.531631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked FunPlus Phoenix53c754.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Trace Esports47c690$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked FunPlus Phoenix55c647.19$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.617954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Trace Esports63c606$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Trace Esports54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27639042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed FunPlus Phoenix60c547.5$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed FunPlus Phoenix65c499.99$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Trace Esports60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Trace Esports52c478.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Trace Esports53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed FunPlus Phoenix53c467.74$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.92948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked FunPlus Phoenix56c464.39$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.282751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x680b…276abacked Trace Esports67c427.21$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.04944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a6…5366backed FunPlus Phoenix20c416.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…b0a5backed FunPlus Phoenix31c413$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.33850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d6a…7f9cbacked FunPlus Phoenix15c395.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2c…047cbacked FunPlus Phoenix28c347$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Trace Esports51c335$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.623043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed Trace Esports57c331.45$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a09…f868backed FunPlus Phoenix62c322.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ed…3ae6backed Trace Esports74c314.31$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.26785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed FunPlus Phoenix37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7992…2a1abacked FunPlus Phoenix68c294.6$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Trace Esports72c286.78$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.22825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed FunPlus Phoenix66c282$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed FunPlus Phoenix19c265.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9931232.7%102 W · 210 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked FunPlus Phoenix46c262.65$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b2…bbdbbacked Trace Esports63c262.17$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.881030%3 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick57cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec7a…a1f2backed FunPlus Phoenix78c254.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a04…71e9backed Trace Esports74c235.6$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Trace Esports42c226.27$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.815743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Trace Esports56c211.48$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed FunPlus Phoenix47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Trace Esports51c187.83$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed FunPlus Phoenix54c186.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004242.9%18 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked FunPlus Phoenix67c180$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c178.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9414653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Trace Esports62c174.78$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.182147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Trace Esports50c174$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873938.5%15 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed FunPlus Phoenix47c173.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.291384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+63.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed FunPlus Phoenix58c171.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003243.8%14 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-29.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed FunPlus Phoenix56c163.64$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.646251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked FunPlus Phoenix56c163.34$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick57cpaid-66%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5134…90f6backed FunPlus Phoenix55c155$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed FunPlus Phoenix47c150.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.716847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Trace Esports54c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.751241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Trace Esports68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0618056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Trace Esports72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Trace Esports80c134.64$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.432955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d1…c018backed Trace Esports73c132.63$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed FunPlus Phoenix54c132.52$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3632152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf08b…9a7dbacked FunPlus Phoenix43c117.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb96…934fbacked Trace Esports37c115.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Trace Esports51c113.77$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7827847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed FunPlus Phoenix36c112.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385c…6915backed Trace Esports39c110.59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+219.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed FunPlus Phoenix64c105$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Trace Esports63c101.28$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.473253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked FunPlus Phoenix30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed FunPlus Phoenix34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Trace Esports46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked FunPlus Phoenix30c99.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Trace Esports44c98.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.753355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Trace Esports51c97.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.134100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf96d…842cbacked FunPlus Phoenix53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7982…86c4backed Trace Esports51c89.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedfd…1432backed FunPlus Phoenix71c89.35$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Trace Esports32c88.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4927411.3%31 W · 243 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked FunPlus Phoenix46c86.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Trace Esports54c86.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Trace Esports35c86.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+65.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcb1…4c29backed FunPlus Phoenix54c83.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.15560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Trace Esports49c81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fdc…06b4backed FunPlus Phoenix32c79.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked Trace Esports52c77.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed FunPlus Phoenix47c74.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked FunPlus Phoenix54c74.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405749.1%28 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.