Token Launches · resolved market
Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbdb2e92c53471c44cd5c67eefa9ec9b5cca77016c31bb4e69c80b144896cce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 3,785$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…96dbbacked No | 0c | 2,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Yes | 74c | 1,678$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.86 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 46c | 1,650$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.89 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes | 48c | 1,335$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 38c | 1,123$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 29c | 1,051$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 34c | 1,000$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.3 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…7471backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 43c | 875.56$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.27 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 749.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Yes | 48c | 713.77$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 10c | 560.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 527.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.12 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…6924backed No | 62c | 364.57$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…895fbacked No | 68c | 319.85$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eff…e273backed Yes | 62c | 305.42$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…fc83backed Yes | 51c | 280.77$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed Yes | 48c | 207.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 203$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9f…4992backed Yes | 10c | 190.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +903.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 48c | 178.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 173.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed No | 15c | 167.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…ca0abacked Yes | 22c | 160.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +254.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 137.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 51c | 130.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…3a4abacked Yes | 51c | 116.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 47c | 107.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 50c | 107$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 48c | 101.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 55c | 99.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 54c | 98.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 25c | 93.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 72c | 92.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 40c | 90.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 81.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked No | 37c | 81.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 30c | 75.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4a…cef0backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 60c | 64.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 34c | 59.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1634backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…776cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 41c | 44.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…7999backed Yes | 39c | 43.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…5652backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…46ccbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 48c | 36.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…acfbbacked No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 49c | 32.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 45c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 56c | 29.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…bdffbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Owlto FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Owlto FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Owlto FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.