Token Launches · resolved market
Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf27b1ef5e332ae9b50b15679fe73efe84875006deb30e8bbe04f48475ff17593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 1c | 23,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,909$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 62c | 2,694$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.18 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,660$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.12 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x41c9…e53bbacked No | 2c | 2,592$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 1c | 2,499$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 36c | 1,530$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.38 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,285$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked No | 48c | 1,016$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.46 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…9208backed No | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…9bd9backed No | 3c | 842.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 714.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…e25ebacked No | 55c | 699.98$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes | 45c | 659.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 37c | 591.86$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.53 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 17c | 570$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…09dfbacked No | 60c | 546.96$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 4c | 520.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…fc83backed No | 2c | 402$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759f…1478backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…d014backed Yes | 78c | 288.67$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 72c | 240$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…e30fbacked Yes | 45c | 224.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 210.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 21c | 205.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…0549backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 76c | 198.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 197.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 175$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9d…3c5cbacked No | 62c | 160.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…5652backed Yes | 37c | 122.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…46ccbacked Yes | 38c | 118.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…7999backed Yes | 37c | 115.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 61c | 103.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes | 38c | 101.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 100.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…a73bbacked No | 78c | 90.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…3a4abacked Yes | 53c | 77.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 55c | 77.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea0…bf6dbacked No | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…177bbacked Yes | 72c | 69.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…b535backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…dc08backed No | 62c | 64.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…4b57backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 60.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…bcadbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 48c | 52.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 59c | 44.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…7ef3backed No | 39c | 36.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…482dbacked No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…ca0abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +254.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed No | 56c | 24.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Owlto FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Owlto FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Owlto FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Owlto FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Owlto FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.