Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4362fb01fecfd8b20a8bc054c429919e095a81f158ae194d63dfbed2c0448faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 6,003$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.84 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 4,444$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 25c | 999.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 52c | 980.7$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.58 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 820.87$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Yes | 42c | 571.79$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…a4aebacked Yes | 47c | 314.89$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Yes | 25c | 301.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 59c | 261.95$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 67c | 220$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…53b0backed Yes | 29c | 175.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Yes | 15c | 175.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 154.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 139.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 37c | 137$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 42c | 127.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 42c | 127.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 38c | 127.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed Yes | 15c | 124.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…980bbacked Yes | 41c | 117.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…9becbacked No | 47c | 96.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 75c | 77.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 40c | 68.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 75c | 66.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 75c | 48.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 43c | 45.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 69c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…1697backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked No | 57c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 65c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 75c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-08-16?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-08-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.