TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-08-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed No78c11,748$9,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,20428345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes18c8,582$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,046.832,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes32c5,551$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7751656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+91.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fcf…e455backed Yes66c4,745$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.57666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed Yes36c4,306$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec5…fd53backed No26c3,901$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No64c3,058$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.872733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No67c2,417$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.1933047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed No34c1,987$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.73922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes28c1,860$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.5643532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes74c1,654$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.023,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No67c1,522$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.2242046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes32c744$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.9229855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No68c683.32$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.541,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes34c676$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.711216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-61.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Yes34c659.71$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No66c615.81$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.4448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No38c586.1$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed01…83a8backed Yes68c454.72$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-70.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Yes36c447.31$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x545b…7e82backed Yes26c377.25$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+102.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes30c330$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked No34c322.93$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes32c307.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.653930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb42…0ad9backed Yes61c297.46$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked No68c290$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed No68c275$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No68c275$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18749647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No68c242.38$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.082871.4%20 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+70.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3820…ffc3backed Yes32c237.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes55c234.88$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8516045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe053…fd08backed Yes63c230.73$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf762…d55fbacked No74c220$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb3…f890backed Yes77c207.57$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b03…b127backed Yes25c199.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No9c198.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2922221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes34c173.53$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.53944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fd…2cd4backed No28c171.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed No65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes34c149.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.992860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d5c…98eebacked Yes30c146.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes43c140.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.291,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb0…99a6backed No73c139.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No64c124$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.367032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked No25c110.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.235756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No60c102$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.489742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd74…bedabacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164025%10 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46cd…6b95backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ef…044abacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No62c99.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed No36c97.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed No68c95.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.341241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Yes36c93.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+174%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes65c88$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No63c81.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Yes22c80.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes27c80$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.44740.4%19 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes27c78.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5110532.4%34 W · 71 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed Yes36c76.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.336640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes34c73.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.53580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Yes62c71.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.221330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6aa…8882backed Yes17c70.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.887219.4%14 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28b…60c6backed Yes74c67.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.87944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No59c66.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.457136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+130.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes40c57.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5920436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes35c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4816343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.58636%31 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked No35c47.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed No65c46.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1410647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No65c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2526445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…30aabacked Yes59c42.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd033…d4c6backed No34c39.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2167…5dedbacked No64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No51c38.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6222245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked No34c38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked No67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df8…4e03backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Yes70c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.556564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6522…3a5abacked No65c22.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked No64c22.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed No66c22.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.651040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9eeb…a72cbacked No65c21.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-67.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No67c21.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1539857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No66c19.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Yes75c14.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.469265.2%60 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.