TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$453,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$495,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes26c52,603$13,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,495.3437745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3225…c158backed Yes1c31,234$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes23c21,309$4,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,807.4617231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252d…c456backed Yes17c19,985$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.3147721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Yes2c8,591$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.27321.9%16 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes25c7,925$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.6163835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e9…7967backed Yes24c6,999$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.033548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c6,950$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.9487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes24c3,484$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.3640643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ed…10b4backed Yes20c3,327$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.246625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No63c3,000$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.3319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes35c3,000$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Yes28c2,900$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.951040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Yes44c2,446$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,144$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.061,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes23c2,063$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.633821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad09…23c7backed Yes44c1,818$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c1,200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.934311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c1,095$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c1,087$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.966785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c1,042$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.731523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes14c1,024$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.694615.2%7 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e21…9665backed Yes1c834.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes3c752.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No75c735.71$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.367330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes9c559.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.36855.9%5 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa236…73f6backed No73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.951050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c464.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No58c450$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.511265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c401.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1636.3%4 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1d…3dacbacked Yes8c379.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes31c363.08$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.352828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No79c350.05$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.687767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes14c328.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.233998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59f…7cbabacked Yes35c285.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd22d…7336backed No73c273.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.073100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ada…5754backed Yes37c270.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa9…38cebacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1158…0f3dbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5384…7408backed Yes20c190.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes34c176.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes20c170.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1826274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes40c154.02$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.592729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a77…4002backed Yes23c141$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7848…aed1backed Yes53c133.32$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x152e…6e7abacked Yes35c128.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda72…69b3backed Yes29c110$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0c…bf66backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50cd…72c2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3017229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ddb…f331backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1214…cf28backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292556%14 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+59.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes41c97.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407042.9%30 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+32.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x654e…a835backed Yes36c85.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes16c79.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6670%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes20c78.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.441717.6%3 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1505…a5e8backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.33652.8%19 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5c…4ce5backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd65…0178backed No76c65.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e27…47b3backed Yes22c62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+90.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8f1…9be2backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x261a…0021backed Yes39c54.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x407f…d62abacked Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25b…dd7fbacked No62c42.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80a…c849backed Yes30c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca8…9075backed Yes41c36.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x185c…dee1backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0997…7d97backed Yes43c32.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a79…48f6backed Yes42c30.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d00…9e05backed No60c25.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbb…8934backed Yes48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7b…f9a1backed No53c23.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc9…9d68backed Yes49c21.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x721d…7f27backed No66c21.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb973…840cbacked Yes49c21.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d30…6498backed No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c06…dd56backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.