Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f4c00416814f73ba91ec253cad906988d28c2e127a44dd1aa17d24774afc0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 25,348$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.9 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000e…8f8fbacked Yes | 56c | 23,732$13,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,407.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 9c | 13,814$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.24 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 60c | 11,138$6,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,443.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 8,743$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 44c | 6,082$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650.98 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 3c | 6,026$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…6573backed Yes | 3c | 5,259$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…dacbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,734$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,624.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…2d1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,872$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 33c | 2,672$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.59 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…9830backed Yes | 5c | 2,637$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,319$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 9c | 2,032$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,902$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.71 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,897$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 68c | 1,693$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.6 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…1aefbacked Yes | 5c | 1,616$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 65c | 1,563$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.21 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 2c | 1,563$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…dc08backed Yes | 5c | 1,350$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…15eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,197$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 42c | 1,145$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.1 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…1511backed Yes | 5c | 936.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 6c | 857.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 61c | 840.02$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.85 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 4c | 737.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 694.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 630$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 3c | 550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…632bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…c036backed Yes | 41c | 482.93$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Yes | 23c | 450$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 73c | 412.38$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.39 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 400.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde8…15a1backed Yes | 62c | 324.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 59c | 288.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…32cdbacked Yes | 20c | 265$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 253.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 42c | 215.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 57c | 215$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…5464backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…be76backed Yes | 45c | 144$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6a…f220backed Yes | 60c | 139.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…fbddbacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…c18abacked Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…a465backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…07b9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa153…468fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…c79fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b57…2b72backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 85.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…445dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…6da0backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf42…5230backed Yes | 44c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 38c | 27.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 24.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 5-11?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.