Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3a0e4c501bf11d9edf4546cb2ac9ba47ea876f1801cdbc3fcf2d405c5b6d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x283a…d6c1backed Yes | 77c | 7,500$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 26c | 6,154$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.76 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 56c | 3,888$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.89 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 41c | 3,514$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 72c | 1,858$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.31 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 25c | 1,216$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 553.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 62c | 472.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 261.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…74cebacked Yes | 75c | 192$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 20c | 186.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd962…1d5cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…2e23backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 23c | 101.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 39c | 85.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…89b5backed No | 31c | 48.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078f…aa10backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…7618backed Yes | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 5-11?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.