Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e45eac8b4f85e51d51dc8f0a748765721d7ad28d2f4f8c0b9d543189840af2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 72c | 9,607$6,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.29 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 0c | 7,856$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…4999backed Yes | 40c | 6,929$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,157.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…e2a4backed No | 60c | 5,618$3,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 56c | 3,434$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.47 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 56c | 3,000$1,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 27c | 2,864$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.08 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…e92cbacked No | 60c | 2,315$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…914bbacked No | 60c | 2,055$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No | 47c | 1,939$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…d157backed Yes | 40c | 1,896$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…f178backed No | 60c | 1,805$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…2d35backed Yes | 40c | 1,680$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…dc08backed Yes | 40c | 1,474$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.43 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff85…053dbacked No | 60c | 992.32$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 55c | 955.47$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.54 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 28c | 874.95$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x575d…3df4backed Yes | 40c | 805.83$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…ff44backed No | 33c | 433.55$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…73f6backed No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 383.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.78 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 372.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…1214backed No | 19c | 350$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…c97ebacked No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…c33dbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 38c | 290$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 19c | 270$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 23c | 228.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…f3adbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 46c | 141.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 33c | 86.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 77c | 77.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…92c4backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf36…95adbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 5-11?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 5-11?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 5-11?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.