Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d72450a8ebd7de77888b517539e2f963fef6e9549a988b0b6699e6defbdf281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 77c | 3,931$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 2,959$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.33 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…0120backed Under | 77c | 712$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…9cd8backed Over | 23c | 712$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 703.19$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 25c | 599.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 31c | 423.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 320.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Under | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 32c | 243.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 75c | 203.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 67c | 201.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 74c | 179.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 22c | 169.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 34c | 121.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 114.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 24c | 102.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 78c | 91.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 30c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 69.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 53.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed Over | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 78c | 37.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Under | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.