Australian A League · resolved market
Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d7936c0ca7d56ead0af6d4fd89c778717bd5761a02daf1fbd0e37a5bc882c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 827.95$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.25 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 656.25$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…b9f7backed Under | 13c | 513.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 4c | 408.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 26c | 314.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 285.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 6c | 255$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 242.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 36c | 136.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…be94backed Over | 64c | 104.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…0fefbacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 64c | 61.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Over | 65c | 47.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 42.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Over | 65c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Wellington Phoenix FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Wellington Phoenix FC won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.