Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d4b2f6441de856c129b61a424cf6fc85ed48b9d4a0a3148297e528d15d972c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 0c | 2,619$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 2,454$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.17 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 1,284$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.36 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 25c | 529.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 62c | 367.57$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 364.69$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 338.96$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 277.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Over | 28c | 175.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 127.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.09 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 123.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 41c | 69.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 45.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 62c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 222 | 39.6%88 W · 134 L | -19.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.