Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead44ce7c568eb308750d451e526c7a97f977a980a05105c4e8ef0be7a4c1f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hertha BSCof Hertha BSC, Eintracht Braunschweig
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hertha BSC | 16c | 758.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.93 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Hertha BSC | 21c | 480.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Eintracht Braunschweig | 79c | 237$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Hertha BSC | 22c | 183.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 34cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Hertha BSC | 11c | 175.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hertha BSC | 27c | 169.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 860 | 32.7%281 W · 579 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eintracht Braunschweig | 77c | 101.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 222 | 39.6%88 W · 134 L | -19.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked Hertha BSC | 17c | 67.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Eintracht Braunschweig | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Hertha BSC | 34c | 29.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Eintracht Braunschweig | 78c | 24.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Eintracht Braunschweig | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)this page
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.