Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Passion UA - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b82215f3b88795426fae7816517d5c2018057609791ce48fdeef96b566c157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Yakutou Brothers, Passion UA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Passion UA | 49c | 3,970$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 1,661$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.61 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakutou Brothers | 53c | 1,577$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.19 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Passion UA | 71c | 1,482$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.15 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yakutou Brothers | 77c | 1,254$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 1,189$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.41 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 1,000$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Passion UA | 21c | 627.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yakutou Brothers | 66c | 585.88$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Passion UA | 34c | 455.88$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Passion UA | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Passion UA | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yakutou Brothers | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yakutou Brothers | 79c | 215.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +474.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec61…4a2ebacked Passion UA | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Passion UA | 40c | 177.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5924backed Passion UA | 7c | 176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 160.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x553f…99b9backed Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 151$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Passion UA | 70c | 134.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9571…1d98backed Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 132.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Passion UA | 76c | 131.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Passion UA | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Passion UA | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Passion UA | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yakutou Brothers | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Passion UA | 56c | 61.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 53.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…3aafbacked Yakutou Brothers | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c4…fe0abacked Yakutou Brothers | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Passion UA | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Passion UA | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Passion UA | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Passion UA - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Passion UA (BO3)Passion UA won
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Passion UA - Game 2 WinnerPassion UA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.