Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b69d4f7656c1cb51063c4b7e30753d7129849ec2ac7c6441f50e3d4cb49b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…f328backed Yes | 30c | 11,666$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 2,092$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.65 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,958$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.22 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 1,771$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.97 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 1,520$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.71 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 72c | 1,188$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.67 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 10c | 1,018$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 939.02$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.99 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 677.33$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 601.58$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.46 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd693…6a5abacked Yes | 28c | 560.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 71c | 532$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 527$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 68c | 491.3$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 423.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 30c | 316.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 244.04$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Yes | 9c | 192.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Yes | 12c | 176.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 175.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 71c | 158.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 29c | 148.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 12c | 146$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…d890backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 26c | 136.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Yes | 22c | 119.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed Yes | 17c | 117.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 108.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 22c | 107.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…0081backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 91.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Yes | 29c | 90.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 87.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 77.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 71c | 74.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Yes | 28c | 53.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 71c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 43.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 71c | 27.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 71c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.