NHL · resolved market
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9841c56d6103cdcf468ca91725549de3e8127f9a248cf8a50e9377ff43859402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavlof Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, Ak Bars Kazan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x606d…1aafbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 2,004$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…d468backed Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 464.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 424.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 308.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 253.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 188.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 46c | 172.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ak Bars Kazan | 39c | 137.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 54c | 132.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ak Bars Kazan | 10c | 129.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 57c | 113.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 101.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Ak Bars Kazan | 51c | 95.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 92.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 60c | 82.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 77.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 69c | 65.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 46c | 60.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 20c | 57.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 44c | 34.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Ak Bars Kazan | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 46c | 23.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…8cd8backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.