TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc879…30a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT4445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$64.95
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$102.17
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marliesbacked Toronto Marlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
World Championships: Canada vs. Finlandbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.83
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+187.8%+$92.01
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$67.56
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavlbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+117.7%+$58.83
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazanbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.91
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$36.43
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavlbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$21.86
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazanbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$24.11
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT3743.2%16 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$224.59
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$21.26
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.78
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winnerbacked Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winnerbacked 9z · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+109.1%+$27.27
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$30.45
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+144.9%+$28.98
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$55.65
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+112.6%+$46.16
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$18
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+107.3%+$32.18
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$101.52
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$137.92
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+137.5%+$66.01
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$157
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+216.2%+$303.65
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$28.11
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+203%+$38.58
All 18 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$93.23
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro (BO3)backed Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$26.52
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$88.63
All 3 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$50.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+198.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+198.8%+$198.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.