NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefdaeae6218c63b90ab330a8e6b0fe1b057304e59b2fc7cccd0a4663a0f2b3bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6afc…5d32backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 319.55$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 61c | 261.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 255.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 42c | 238.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Toronto Marlies | 40c | 214$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…42f7backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 63c | 160.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 49c | 136.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 66c | 134.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a3b9backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 125.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…7784backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 59c | 95.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Marlies | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 58c | 76.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…983fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 63.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 62.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…493abacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 67c | 53.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 42.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…5d00backed Toronto Marlies | 68c | 41.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Marlies | 26c | 40.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 39.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Marlies | 42c | 32.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 57c | 31.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfa…1e46backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 31.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Toronto Marlies | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 54c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…92edbacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 28.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…26ecbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 26.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…c80dbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…2c96backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 23.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…5414backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…84e1backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.