TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof TheMongolz, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$481,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$593,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed BetBoom Team13c59,958$7,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,730.681,46139.3%574 W · 887 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team52c25,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.9577957.4%447 W · 332 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked BetBoom Team35c12,529$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,329.281,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed TheMongolz48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.672060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked BetBoom Team17c8,982$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.3813142.7%56 W · 75 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked BetBoom Team8c8,367$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.7341640.4%168 W · 248 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2439…a66dbacked TheMongolz69c6,764$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed BetBoom Team35c6,572$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30012449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed TheMongolz48c5,960$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.218943.4%82 W · 107 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed BetBoom Team13c5,385$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70018442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed TheMongolz72c4,300$3,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20410560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked TheMongolz48c4,197$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.6782251.6%424 W · 398 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TheMongolz71c4,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15046058.7%270 W · 190 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked BetBoom Team40c3,960$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.575543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked TheMongolz68c3,851$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.81,27347.1%600 W · 673 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed BetBoom Team12c3,448$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.3721135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed BetBoom Team18c3,316$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.751250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked TheMongolz58c2,983$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.31,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed BetBoom Team6c2,918$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4916049.4%79 W · 81 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed TheMongolz64c2,849$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.292,41245.4%1,095 W · 1,317 L-62.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team31c2,645$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.941,62745.7%743 W · 884 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked BetBoom Team13c2,600$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.583844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed TheMongolz72c2,454$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9119659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d7a…70b6backed BetBoom Team2c2,400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed TheMongolz70c2,388$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.2323354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x841d…f06ebacked BetBoom Team18c2,161$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.641947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team34c2,000$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.762,47244.5%1,101 W · 1,371 L-68.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb378…e4c0backed BetBoom Team2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3438312.8%49 W · 334 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed BetBoom Team53c1,959$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04819748.7%96 W · 101 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed BetBoom Team52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9545639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz60c1,843$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.372,12041.9%889 W · 1,231 L-47.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed BetBoom Team11c1,811$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.639826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BetBoom Team34c1,684$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.295,40031.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L-393.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed BetBoom Team36c1,678$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.8818056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked BetBoom Team53c1,622$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.8414044.3%62 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz47c1,576$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.335,13755%2,826 W · 2,311 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TheMongolz55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz48c1,493$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.3665751.9%341 W · 316 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed BetBoom Team13c1,465$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19219636.7%72 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team15c1,392$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.345,11337.1%1,899 W · 3,214 L-268.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked BetBoom Team42c1,357$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56566250.3%333 W · 329 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed BetBoom Team57c1,340$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.522152.9%117 W · 104 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed TheMongolz76c1,336$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.6688848.3%429 W · 459 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked TheMongolz79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.823268.8%22 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked BetBoom Team16c1,251$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,63444.7%731 W · 903 L+4.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed TheMongolz47c1,250$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.4824935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team15c1,250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.731,06949.3%527 W · 542 L+40.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team18c1,250$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5790347.2%426 W · 477 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d8…cf41backed BetBoom Team13c1,249$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed TheMongolz47c1,248$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.37554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed BetBoom Team20c1,182$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.0615155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TheMongolz72c1,155$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.22,70747.9%1,296 W · 1,411 L-30.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed TheMongolz47c1,100$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.984839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed BetBoom Team15c1,067$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16017349.7%86 W · 87 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked BetBoom Team21c1,033$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8541554.2%225 W · 190 L+26.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked TheMongolz48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52035460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked BetBoom Team20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3e…d91ebacked BetBoom Team1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed TheMongolz76c999.99$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3312759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed BetBoom Team56c898.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,20554.5%657 W · 548 L-37.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked TheMongolz48c880.33$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.771681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+64.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked TheMongolz48c872.45$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.6729044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed BetBoom Team2c856.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.121190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed BetBoom Team36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017754.8%97 W · 80 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed BetBoom Team6c830.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.12120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed BetBoom Team52c824.98$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9961341.8%256 W · 357 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed TheMongolz48c812.67$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.5943051.6%222 W · 208 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc96…d916backed BetBoom Team13c781.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010333%34 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed BetBoom Team12c759.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6147941.5%199 W · 280 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked TheMongolz77c754.99$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.6519741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked BetBoom Team53c754.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014563.4%92 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed BetBoom Team16c750$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.951,28922%283 W · 1,006 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5113…b692backed TheMongolz48c741.15$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.423652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c4…caaebacked BetBoom Team53c739.62$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BetBoom Team51c738.19$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4817045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed BetBoom Team2c729.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1825416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed BetBoom Team55c723.61$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed BetBoom Team46c720.27$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32912441.1%51 W · 73 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed BetBoom Team52c715.42$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.0239549.9%197 W · 198 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BetBoom Team9c703.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.515,65147.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L+46.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb600…4440backed BetBoom Team10c700$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7116546.1%76 W · 89 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed BetBoom Team43c676.86$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29137850.3%190 W · 188 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x687f…da05backed BetBoom Team20c676.43$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.041770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+49.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed BetBoom Team37c664.61$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0431954.5%174 W · 145 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cbb…75a1backed BetBoom Team13c636.17$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8514339.9%57 W · 86 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed BetBoom Team38c629.04$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7818848.4%91 W · 97 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BetBoom Team23c623.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.964,81743.4%2,091 W · 2,726 L-90.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed TheMongolz49c615.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.0938835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed TheMongolz53c612.03$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.6515052.7%79 W · 71 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614b…ca37backed BetBoom Team53c588.3$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31111959.7%71 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c7…b6c4backed BetBoom Team19c582.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106457.8%37 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed BetBoom Team35c575.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked BetBoom Team55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed BetBoom Team13c538.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed BetBoom Team7c519.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.085824.1%14 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed TheMongolz70c516.83$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9413655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf49a…8981backed BetBoom Team29c511.22$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2119641.3%81 W · 115 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed BetBoom Team34c505.57$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.671,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed BetBoom Team52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26045739.4%180 W · 277 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed BetBoom Team18c500$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9255845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.