TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$450,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$455,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $450,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb915…8da5backed Cavaliers56c65,138$36,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,294.6510459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Cavaliers56c53,223$29,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,804.8826753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks60c50,000$29,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,020.8228056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks45c41,338$18,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,638.5464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Cavaliers55c28,579$15,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,718.5516841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Knicks45c25,129$11,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,938.4531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Knicks45c24,248$10,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,389.5955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Knicks45c22,745$10,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,509.9724942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Knicks44c22,618$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,668.211,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Cavaliers54c18,600$10,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,039.9927549.5%136 W · 139 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Knicks45c16,797$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,297.2463746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Cavaliers53c15,864$8,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,331.225940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Cavaliers40c15,474$6,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,189.4756646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Cavaliers55c11,273$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2003540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks47c10,000$4,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,320.5525352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Cavaliers56c8,235$4,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,571.854465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers55c8,028$4,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,415.334,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers40c7,641$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.9269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers56c7,240$4,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,036.5964651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Knicks48c7,113$3,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,698.8814045.7%64 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Knicks44c6,768$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.6890650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Cavaliers54c6,106$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2974951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Knicks45c5,556$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.569725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Knicks45c5,322$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.481,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Cavaliers54c5,194$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7903342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Knicks46c5,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.9210049%49 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Cavaliers55c4,696$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.856843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Cavaliers54c4,613$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.4638947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Knicks45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.445954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Cavaliers53c3,642$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93070246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks44c3,454$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.2372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Cavaliers54c3,333$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8005935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Knicks44c3,043$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.9652150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Cavaliers57c2,995$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7005240.4%21 W · 31 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers40c2,666$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.331,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Cavaliers54c2,593$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4004042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d64…26cebacked Knicks47c2,589$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.161668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks45c2,139$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Knicks44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers56c1,875$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0502,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Knicks45c1,861$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.261,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers19c1,822$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.811,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Cavaliers52c1,809$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.677143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Cavaliers56c1,787$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.738744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Knicks45c1,650$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Knicks45c1,620$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89195651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Knicks44c1,551$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.7932045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Knicks46c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.9812741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cavaliers11c1,449$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.211,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Knicks44c1,321$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.3825554.5%139 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x987b…3d00backed Cavaliers54c1,296$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70016555.8%92 W · 73 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks47c1,281$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Knicks45c1,233$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.3321957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Knicks48c1,146$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.837247.2%34 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdffd…924fbacked Knicks45c1,111$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1113949.6%69 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Cavaliers56c1,071$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022349.8%111 W · 112 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Cavaliers53c1,050$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55716946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cavaliers53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53025651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Cavaliers55c999.99$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.6643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a0c…38edbacked Cavaliers54c962.96$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e1…06bbbacked Knicks71c850.46$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.4613757.7%79 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Knicks43c804.5$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.5758740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Cavaliers56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44811451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Knicks44c800$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.223652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Cavaliers40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32068838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ab…e495backed Knicks45c782.84$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.56944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Knicks69c777.12$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4852461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Knicks48c764.35$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40111258.9%66 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks44c728.8$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.1318651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Cavaliers55c713.41$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7423742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Cavaliers3c670$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16437.5%24 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks46c637.54$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Knicks45c635.17$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.341752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Knicks66c619.88$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.7353842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cavaliers4c604$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1645445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b2b…e5e7backed Cavaliers57c578.95$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3306347.6%30 W · 33 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Cavaliers53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Cavaliers53c532$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9619745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Cavaliers57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011242%47 W · 65 L-13.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe9f…31e3backed Cavaliers40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Cavaliers55c499.97$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3265939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers57c468.18$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.862,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Cavaliers56c454.54$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.545339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5999…bdbebacked Cavaliers56c446.39$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.983348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Knicks47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5347048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Cavaliers57c423.81$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5712055.8%67 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Cavaliers53c419.82$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0860049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Cavaliers54c416.67$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22547651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Knicks47c414.89$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8915246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Knicks45c367.84$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7515759.2%93 W · 64 L+9.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Knicks44c363.64$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6417848.3%86 W · 92 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked Cavaliers55c359.02$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.46955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ed…9bb9backed Cavaliers56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf182…4d61backed Cavaliers56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers55c353.28$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.861,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a5…cd84backed Cavaliers57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Cavaliers57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Cavaliers8c332.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3925045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Knicks45c310$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.156043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.