NBA · resolved market
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaddb848757cb10b2a718bfe4883644472ae43239bbec37c7c8f4858d47c8d7ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 44c | 1,566$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.82 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 47c | 1,557$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.77 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.98 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 48c | 951.35$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.65 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…fee0backed Yes | 53c | 941.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +208%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 53c | 620.87$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 54c | 560.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Yes | 55c | 541.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 47c | 443.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Yes | 56c | 436.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Yes | 54c | 332.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.76 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.27 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 45c | 325.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 45c | 277.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 54c | 230.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 45c | 224.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 47c | 196$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 192.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Yes | 58c | 172.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 53c | 169.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…10c0backed Yes | 55c | 130.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 113.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd424…bf7bbacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed No | 48c | 104.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked No | 48c | 104.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…5b93backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 47c | 98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…927cbacked No | 48c | 93.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Yes | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 266 | 59%157 W · 109 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…8199backed Yes | 53c | 74.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…03ebbacked Yes | 60c | 72.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed No | 40c | 72.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked No | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…96f4backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…f3c0backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…a5b7backed Yes | 53c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…6e60backed No | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 48c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…ef41backed Yes | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 54c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 43c | 29.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…7d91backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 46c | 27.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…1025backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 47c | 26.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…1485backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…7350backed Yes | 58c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a80…a983backed Yes | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…531fbacked No | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 54c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.