TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,300 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks47c18,001$8,459 inWon+$9,541.6118651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Cavaliers53c11,577$6,136 inLost-$6,136.0214842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Cavaliers53c8,200$4,346 inLost-$4,34612056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks47c6,424$3,027 inWon+$3,397.2125352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers52c6,202$3,225 inLost-$3,225.282,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…d45ebacked Knicks48c6,202$2,977 inWon+$3,225.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Cavaliers53c3,336$1,761 inLost-$1,760.664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers53c800$424 inLost-$4241,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ab…8432backed Cavaliers21c698.6$150 inLost-$1505446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Knicks46c530.36$246 inWon+$284.4823652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Cavaliers53c450$239 inLost-$238.55339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Cavaliers14c285.71$40 inLost-$407432.4%24 W · 50 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Cavaliers51c210$107 inLost-$107.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Knicks50c209.18$105 inWon+$104.1825850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Cavaliers53c206.75$110 inLost-$109.5818853.7%101 W · 87 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Cavaliers53c200.1$106 inLost-$106.0560049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Knicks50c190.46$95 inWon+$95.235736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Cavaliers50c160.13$80 inLost-$79.9717247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers50c160$80 inLost-$801,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Knicks77c148.51$114 inWon+$34.161,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Cavaliers50c134.63$67 inLost-$67.471,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Cavaliers52c122.79$64 inLost-$63.8537652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Knicks48c120.83$58 inWon+$62.836346%29 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked Cavaliers53c115.38$61 inLost-$61.151250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Knicks48c68.75$33 inWon+$35.752152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Knicks54c50$27 inWon+$2310545.7%48 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0f…110ebacked Cavaliers46c50$23 inLost-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Knicks78c42$33 inWon+$9.2430842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x970f…f167backed Knicks48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.675556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Knicks48c35.67$17 inWon+$18.6119959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Knicks48c34.22$16 inWon+$17.7961638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Cavaliers51c32$16 inLost-$16.325133.3%17 W · 34 L-8.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Knicks49c30.61$15 inWon+$15.617444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Cavaliers52c21.85$11 inLost-$11.362839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers49c21.37$10 inLost-$10.472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.