NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24a16e6e53736620b6f31550bafb80b7ad704247ae170c8ba45e8d9fc341a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3496…8fc4backed Yes | 51c | 13,623$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 7,825$3,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,912.43 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 50c | 1,288$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.2 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 48c | 964$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.28 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 53c | 947.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked No | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 49c | 672.18$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.27 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 46c | 453.63$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.96 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 49c | 434.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.84 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 48c | 403.02$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…07a3backed No | 51c | 292.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…5dcfbacked Yes | 51c | 290.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 52c | 251.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 49c | 251.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Yes | 52c | 231.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 222.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 50c | 204$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 50c | 198.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Yes | 52c | 193.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 49c | 170.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 47c | 169.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 50c | 122$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 51c | 116.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 67.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7840…51b5backed No | 57c | 62.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 49c | 57.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 48c | 43.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…abfcbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…c175backed Yes | 50c | 37.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +95%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 49c | 36.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked No | 75c | 33.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed No | 52c | 33.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…7d91backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…97b7backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed No | 51c | 25.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Knicks vs. CavaliersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5Under won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.