TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,383 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes50c1,786$897 inLost-$897.0520155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No50c1,086$540 inWon+$546.163473.5%25 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No50c444$222 inWon+$22224949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked No49c242.78$120 inWon+$122.787153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a2…3538backed Yes51c204.99$104 inLost-$104.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7798…8199backed Yes53c108.27$57 inLost-$56.92060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c99.99$49 inWon+$50.9985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No47c79.02$37 inWon+$41.8843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb0e…90a1backed No54c75.87$41 inWon+$34.92272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes46c54.81$25 inLost-$25.3119959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.8266046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Yes41c34.15$14 inLost-$142138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No59c34.15$20 inWon+$1433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No50c25.5$13 inWon+$12.7533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ef…e3c0backed No50c20$10 inWon+$104100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.