TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,359 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed No49c260$127 inWon+$132.656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes52c229$120 inLost-$12012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No46c226.54$105 inWon+$121.3390863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked Yes51c215.69$110 inLost-$11025850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c200$98 inWon+$10285449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes53c188.58$100 inLost-$10024159.8%144 W · 97 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes52c187.83$98 inLost-$98.439353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No46c179.96$83 inWon+$96.8843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes54c148.88$80 inLost-$8034849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No48c110.16$53 inWon+$57.4833049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No48c73.08$35 inWon+$3836153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f0…78cfbacked Yes51c58.82$30 inLost-$30944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No45c51.8$23 inWon+$28.496147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No50c40.29$20 inWon+$20.2966046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f6…ef41backed Yes53c37.69$20 inLost-$201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No48c30$14 inWon+$15.626957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5af8…9e55backed Yes50c29.71$15 inLost-$151540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x070d…abfcbacked Yes53c20.75$11 inLost-$11812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.