CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a34ac2074b21814b583242be5c8a1aef1317bc672c3f65a4aaead42d6e5365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof magic, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked NIP | 72c | 4,526$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.03 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed magic | 24c | 1,014$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed magic | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 417 | 16.5%69 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NIP | 50c | 780$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked magic | 15c | 756$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed magic | 12c | 682$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…534cbacked magic | 35c | 479.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed magic | 50c | 456.15$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.98 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed NIP | 80c | 435.72$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed NIP | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NIP | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NIP | 76c | 291.81$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed NIP | 78c | 289.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed magic | 21c | 260$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 625 | 38.6%241 W · 384 L | -16.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked magic | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked magic | 31c | 217.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…57eebacked magic | 38c | 215.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked NIP | 52c | 215.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 528 | 37.1%196 W · 332 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed NIP | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 184 | 32.6%60 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed magic | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 383 | 12.8%49 W · 334 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed magic | 17c | 154.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked magic | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked magic | 24c | 138.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…224fbacked magic | 13c | 130.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…30a4backed magic | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked NIP | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed magic | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 368 | 37.5%138 W · 230 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked NIP | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 217 | 41%89 W · 128 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed NIP | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed NIP | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 373 | 39.7%148 W · 225 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked NIP | 80c | 82.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked NIP | 76c | 75.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed magic | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed magic | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed NIP | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…36cfbacked magic | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed magic | 26c | 56.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cab…db1dbacked magic | 24c | 50.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 50.3%77 W · 76 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked magic | 29c | 50.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked NIP | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed NIP | 62c | 43.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…d246backed NIP | 77c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 263 | 68.8%181 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed NIP | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked NIP | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked magic | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed NIP | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed NIP | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed NIP | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed magic | 47c | 21.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…0ecdbacked magic | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 329 | 56.8%187 W · 142 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 PlayoffsNIP won
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.