Token Launches · resolved market
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e8257a0c5824d33863c76398d0dabc65c242a397b737b86700fee897bad3c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf49c…9786backed Yes | 13c | 32,980$4,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…bb25backed Yes | 0c | 15,782$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed Yes | 23c | 11,351$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…a3f1backed Yes | 12c | 8,635$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +534.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,849$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 18c | 6,236$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.16 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed Yes | 19c | 4,088$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.96 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…652ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 76c | 979.39$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 10c | 930.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…9c62backed No | 76c | 924.12$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…05d0backed Yes | 15c | 850.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 22c | 827.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 18c | 806.14$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…b5fdbacked Yes | 41c | 668.4$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 31c | 599.85$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…2bcfbacked Yes | 16c | 549.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…7582backed No | 79c | 545.88$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 21c | 538.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 27c | 510$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 60c | 510$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…a82fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 71c | 466.62$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 338.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 24c | 319.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed Yes | 20c | 298.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…5ae3backed Yes | 32c | 285.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec46…85d8backed Yes | 21c | 266.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…0c9abacked Yes | 29c | 265.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7e…5ba1backed Yes | 40c | 226.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 76c | 222.87$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f54…9c86backed Yes | 16c | 214.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 24c | 212.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 7c | 174.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed Yes | 26c | 163.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…3d20backed No | 80c | 121.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…23a0backed Yes | 16c | 108.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…ff61backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0911backed Yes | 24c | 98.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…d03abacked Yes | 21c | 92.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…a008backed Yes | 40c | 75.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 67.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 22c | 53.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…c131backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…c095backed Yes | 31c | 48.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6b…d327backed Yes | 62c | 45.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +722%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…b1b9backed Yes | 38c | 43.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +456.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…7946backed Yes | 33c | 41.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6f…5922backed Yes | 30c | 34.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.