TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,812 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf49c…9786backed Yes52c21,941$11,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,598.06922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66a…bb25backed No0c19,454$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb67…d696backed No50c8,746$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,372.267270.8%51 W · 21 L+20.9wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+190%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xf575…b53abacked No46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No40c4,328$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.728744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed No33c3,951$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.754938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x825e…f0d6backed No52c3,239$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.28825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No40c2,946$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.4719543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b8…b04fbacked Yes53c2,661$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.125100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No46c2,216$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.813622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7cbf…6c43backed No47c1,927$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.964942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x547f…961fbacked No45c1,895$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes79c1,805$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.143256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x129b…24c4backed No41c1,656$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.795851.7%30 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x772b…b16dbacked No47c1,535$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.076927.5%19 W · 50 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea9…bdc1backed No22c1,366$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes69c1,339$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.585642.9%24 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+260.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No25c1,275$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.61618.2%5 W · 56 L-7.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No41c1,151$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.4211421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59ad…8a1abacked Yes71c1,100$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.271020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Yes75c914.38$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.052941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a34…7ca4backed No28c859.62$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.893330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed No37c835.6$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.156350.8%32 W · 31 L+12.0wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+108.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes77c812.65$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.028728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf958…2bcfbacked Yes64c754.94$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No23c700$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1593855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3543…3cbfbacked Yes52c644.46$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked No43c607.44$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.661827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked No43c586.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.445457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No14c563.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.831117.2%8 W · 103 L-12.9wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x647f…cd57backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x243c…2240backed No14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706937.7%26 W · 43 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+87.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48db…5ff5backed No40c460.8$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.073243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b7…2f8bbacked No22c400.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No3c399.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c344.09$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1749…3ff4backed No50c332.09$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Yes51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd9…0c9abacked Yes78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x897d…9034backed No16c271.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f0f…b11dbacked Yes60c251.61$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.161154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf239…3627backed No39c234.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.25529.1%16 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked Yes76c234.27$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c221.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.433495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x433f…1accbacked Yes59c220$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.91485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+111.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No14c213.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc60…85c9backed Yes47c211.46$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.073268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No19c210.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.066931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6be…5c65backed No10c204.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e4c…c962backed No52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e6f…983dbacked Yes80c197.25$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No22c192.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.073026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89cb…d14fbacked No47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd223…5ec2backed No37c177.13$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.642352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d79…46b8backed Yes73c144.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.933100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes62c135.79$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.610143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ec…05fdbacked No32c112.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.897147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…f578backed No24c110.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.721338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd1…2d92backed Yes45c102.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5193…64a5backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507041.4%29 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d87…446dbacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes64c94.82$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No11c94.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3188…870bbacked Yes77c92.33$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee86…07d8backed Yes66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd18d…e7b4backed No54c86.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.695425.9%14 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1301…a6b9backed Yes59c83.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes67c83.13$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.363262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf01…3840backed Yes62c78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+82.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc91…1a88backed No48c77.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d5…aba1backed Yes66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841060%6 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0053…b066backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.44759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8490…ac46backed No30c59.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd794…ce26backed No31c57.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00e…b9b8backed No31c57.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed87…f961backed Yes57c57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+118.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58de…9169backed Yes68c54.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab2f…40c2backed Yes52c53.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9210…8b0ebacked Yes47c40.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.445100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No49c39.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa33…372ebacked Yes43c39.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.671942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a07…44dbbacked No65c38.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8463…f801backed No52c37.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No32c35.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.255822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e81…4830backed Yes65c33.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe450…91b9backed No43c33.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.332759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34de…2e2fbacked Yes74c32.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes76c28.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.794148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb65a…b3aebacked No49c26.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.974126.8%11 W · 30 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes53c25.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.181668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b6b…d327backed Yes70c20.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+722%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f1…7ccbbacked Yes76c18.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.