Token Launches · resolved market
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7328a2e46f547331b19cc1503e23ab07921d6ac9cc27e4b8c027af7dd644804b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 6,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…2240backed No | 12c | 1,234$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 4c | 1,076$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…c1a9backed No | 11c | 762.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 16c | 615.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…968abacked No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 6c | 488.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed No | 9c | 482.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 12c | 467.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 15c | 453.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 6c | 433.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 20c | 398.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 20c | 132.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…b3aebacked No | 16c | 78.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.