Token Launches · resolved market
Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4b824b7a3a4479a92ecf05bd970200f867c424d0f5a2fe61415c9ca713afda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 35c | 5,848$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 63c | 5,210$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940.81 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 35c | 2,827$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.1 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…9f2abacked No | 66c | 1,375$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 41cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,354$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.08 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed No | 74c | 1,297$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.98 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,039$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…f578backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 63c | 936.07$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf958…2bcfbacked Yes | 32c | 837.16$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…9c62backed No | 46c | 790.83$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 779.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked No | 74c | 408.66$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…edf7backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 53c | 290$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 76c | 283.2$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b7…2f8bbacked No | 32c | 280.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…b5fdbacked Yes | 74c | 260.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 38c | 256.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 226$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 60c | 200.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…1accbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…a82fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…4615backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 44c | 199.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 68c | 190.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…3968backed Yes | 55c | 184.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.43per pick | 48cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…d03abacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…dae2backed No | 53c | 112.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…ca47backed No | 28c | 106.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…0c87backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb9…a1fabacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7e…5ba1backed Yes | 61c | 98.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26aa…5fc4backed No | 77c | 91.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 17c | 88.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 18c | 87.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…9786backed Yes | 19c | 74.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 42c | 69.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 62.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…5ec2backed Yes | 61c | 51.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…b0efbacked Yes | 38c | 50.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed No | 79c | 36.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?this page
- Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Fluent FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.