TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Devils vs. Hurricanes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Devils, Hurricanes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,585,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,652,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,585,380 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,018 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Devils36c465,006$166,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166,035.3767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9c…8824backed Devils0c379,607$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Hurricanes65c214,661$140,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,641.311,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Devils34c134,780$45,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,981.2611644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Hurricanes65c92,833$60,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,758.836748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hurricanes63c56,634$35,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,947.5251550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hurricanes64c50,000$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,00040351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hurricanes63c21,937$13,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,116.6159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hurricanes65c19,668$12,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,821.8427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hurricanes64c18,852$11,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,859.552,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Hurricanes48c18,584$8,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,672.1512838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Hurricanes65c16,842$10,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,847.4513252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Devils52c15,555$8,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,088.644848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes65c13,389$8,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,670.5761950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hurricanes66c12,168$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,168.3440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Devils35c11,631$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,07185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes66c10,613$7,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,611.761,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Devils40c10,453$4,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,183.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hurricanes64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Hurricanes66c9,383$6,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.5212152.1%63 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Hurricanes65c8,640$5,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0241675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Hurricanes66c7,945$5,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.9837754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hurricanes65c7,913$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,792.731,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Hurricanes64c7,257$4,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,612.3547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Hurricanes64c7,027$4,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.1551045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Hurricanes65c6,770$4,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.519051.1%97 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Devils34c6,464$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.6489249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hurricanes63c5,555$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.3552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Hurricanes66c4,419$2,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hurricanes63c4,270$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.741,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Devils34c4,251$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.961,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hurricanes60c4,100$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.562,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Hurricanes65c4,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.9820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hurricanes66c3,788$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.8831550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66a7…3845backed Devils35c3,588$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Devils35c3,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22527547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Devils31c3,456$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.7389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Devils34c3,333$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.334139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes67c3,124$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.761,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Hurricanes66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.38544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Hurricanes66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Devils34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Devils37c2,864$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.0833450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Devils35c2,807$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-75.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hurricanes64c2,786$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.121,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Hurricanes64c2,561$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.9345955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Hurricanes66c2,500$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hurricanes63c2,486$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.6283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hurricanes65c2,222$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.6786649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Hurricanes66c2,216$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.443850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Hurricanes48c2,140$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.830946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Hurricanes76c2,061$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.0485464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Hurricanes66c2,020$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.86256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Hurricanes64c1,972$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.8824952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Hurricanes66c1,900$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64650251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Devils34c1,890$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.614954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Devils49c1,648$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.831,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Hurricanes66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.1510647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Hurricanes67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2214650%73 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hurricanes63c1,479$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.122,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hurricanes64c1,328$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.131,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hurricanes65c1,280$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.7666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e5…653dbacked Hurricanes65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a88…cc1abacked Hurricanes65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9928…3adabacked Devils35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…9efabacked Hurricanes65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick55cpaid+48%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fa1…6919backed Devils35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe368…92e5backed Hurricanes65c1,200$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b4c…c85ebacked Devils35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9729…7ea6backed Devils35c1,200$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1a…74d1backed Hurricanes65c1,195$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.251040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a4…c3cdbacked Devils35c1,195$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa8…9ab8backed Devils35c1,190$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ff…0e36backed Hurricanes65c1,190$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Devils34c1,189$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1560337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba20…4238backed Devils35c1,175$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a48…dbfebacked Devils35c1,175$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe92…01b8backed Hurricanes65c1,175$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1e…9c18backed Hurricanes65c1,175$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.251291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.36per pick56cpaid+67.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x87d6…ff38backed Devils35c1,175$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0df3…227bbacked Devils35c1,175$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5683…f3bebacked Hurricanes65c1,175$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.25977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9545…f6fabacked Hurricanes65c1,175$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…ce09backed Devils35c1,170$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbc…9300backed Hurricanes65c1,170$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a5…e91ebacked Hurricanes65c1,165$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b7…06f0backed Hurricanes65c1,165$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.751070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc466…575ebacked Devils35c1,165$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe142…5b2fbacked Devils35c1,165$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…df9fbacked Devils35c1,165$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4b…cfd4backed Devils35c1,165$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x827f…34e9backed Hurricanes65c1,165$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b6…7bf5backed Hurricanes65c1,165$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea4…c72fbacked Hurricanes65c1,155$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.251070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb7c…bee5backed Devils35c1,155$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8e…d0f6backed Hurricanes65c1,155$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.25988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x27ea…bcb9backed Devils35c1,155$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.25977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Hurricanes64c1,148$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.447149.3%35 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9894…0307backed Hurricanes65c1,145$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.75757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5465…7be1backed Devils35c1,145$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.