NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe259da9d772dcbd1b61543017458fcf70a84a675937e48a0414e23b51f7bc5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 54c | 455.74$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 60c | 442.5$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 48c | 387$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.74 | 128 | 38.3%49 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 49c | 376.51$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 63c | 273.2$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 40c | 254.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 240.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 49c | 204.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 49c | 182.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 173.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 148$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 39c | 125.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 39c | 100.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 87.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 67c | 67.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…958dbacked Under | 59c | 67.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 40c | 50.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 61c | 48.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Over | 46c | 39.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 51c | 35.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 59c | 20.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.