Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68dd704a576de9fbb0f5a344e6d14376af05cf3da38cceacfe64eb6539d19634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 4,553$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.65 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 77c | 1,943$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.89 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 29c | 1,909$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.03 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked No | 77c | 1,790$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 77c | 910.49$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 53c | 664.66$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.07 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 636.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 31c | 585.58$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 75c | 581.9$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…2c20backed Yes | 7c | 560.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 76c | 550.8$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.19 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 504.37$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 38c | 485$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 3c | 418$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…650abacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…ddb7backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 184.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 22c | 181.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Yes | 29c | 173.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 24c | 152$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 35c | 132.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 120.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…a19bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 43c | 94.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 90.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 87.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 16c | 80.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 74c | 79.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 79.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed No | 72c | 74.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c7…a35dbacked No | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 77c | 63.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 25c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 77c | 55.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 60c | 54.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 54.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 77c | 53.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…4ef8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6a…f817backed Yes | 39c | 49.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…e039backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 55c | 42.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 77c | 37.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a8…5aedbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 66c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 76c | 30.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Yes | 78c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 52c | 22.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 48c | 22.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 76c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.