TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,210

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe167…03a1backed MOUZ44c8,130$3,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,561.723447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06a8…2927backed MOUZ60c5,469$3,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,261.073228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Natus Vincere54c2,817$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.7115946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked MOUZ50c2,810$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40013558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere54c2,551$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.6273841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a4…a73ebacked MOUZ3c2,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652516%4 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere48c2,082$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.8925444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Natus Vincere49c1,765$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.3112948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f7e…b3f4backed MOUZ12c1,359$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.821050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed Natus Vincere65c1,197$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.414957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…67ebbacked Natus Vincere50c1,023$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed MOUZ2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac70…2d8dbacked MOUZ52c948.92$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.939245.7%42 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Natus Vincere56c755.43$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.038845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere67c729.77$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6634146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed MOUZ42c680.4$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.939444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Natus Vincere48c659$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6822647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed MOUZ11c600$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.83212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3228…b4e3backed Natus Vincere75c553.48$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.397037.1%26 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83fc…2bedbacked MOUZ42c479.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked MOUZ11c450$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.17226.4%19 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Natus Vincere48c444.13$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.657647.4%36 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere54c382.24$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed MOUZ61c374.55$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.469955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Natus Vincere67c317.21$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.272462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Natus Vincere56c315.09$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9412256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x086f…8bc3backed MOUZ37c315$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.024710.6%5 W · 42 L-12.0wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-70.7%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Natus Vincere49c298$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15167853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere79c286.67$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3892056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Natus Vincere75c285.71$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.213053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Natus Vincere30c283.33$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.331513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere50c264.68$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6947748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere29c260.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2954445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ32c224.65$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.249750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked MOUZ47c210.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…630cbacked Natus Vincere60c202.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Natus Vincere55c200.71$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4112661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdff…265ebacked MOUZ50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Natus Vincere48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1043850%19 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere73c190.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.245061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ39c180.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3352243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere40c160$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.533743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked MOUZ48c157.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7523849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Natus Vincere54c136.92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.538037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere60c127.14$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.862,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6476…a8f9backed Natus Vincere53c112.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked MOUZ75c110$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.51478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1af1…7b88backed Natus Vincere59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.342740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed MOUZ13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Natus Vincere65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3518649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Natus Vincere38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked MOUZ17c97.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.93286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0xec85…8ba8backed Natus Vincere80c96.44$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.392857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2964…9d6abacked MOUZ44c79.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.39425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f33…0ecabacked MOUZ71c77.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Natus Vincere31c71.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3433945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee6…67d2backed MOUZ56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c80…aa9abacked Natus Vincere54c68.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Natus Vincere48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.518444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6bb…d732backed Natus Vincere54c61.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.642445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Natus Vincere68c57.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5213157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed MOUZ35c57.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012449.2%61 W · 63 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked MOUZ51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed MOUZ38c47.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1216160.2%97 W · 64 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed MOUZ30c40.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0114142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Natus Vincere50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2020530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Natus Vincere65c33.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.885062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked Natus Vincere66c30.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1210770.1%75 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed MOUZ40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x097f…3022backed Natus Vincere43c29.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b99…eda5backed Natus Vincere69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991963.2%12 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd25…03b9backed Natus Vincere49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere50c26.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.461,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Natus Vincere57c26.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3821751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb644…af07backed Natus Vincere45c25.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Natus Vincere64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.97646.1%35 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere60c21.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Natus Vincere65c21.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.493839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Natus Vincere70c20.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1511054.5%60 W · 50 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d4…b96cbacked Natus Vincere69c17.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.327048.6%34 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedfd…1432backed Natus Vincere80c14.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.