Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84bdef62629c74105329987d504bb09e885040264358a0de1c476bdea9fbadb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a8…2927backed MOUZ | 61c | 5,448$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 2,900$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…8ae3backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,309$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…3c5fbacked Natus Vincere | 2c | 1,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…8622backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…67ebbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 795.21$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 781.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf871…b9efbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 770$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 71c | 697.78$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 354.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…a8f9backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 229.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…7e9ebacked MOUZ | 55c | 215.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed MOUZ | 43c | 193.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 174.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.27 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 153.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked MOUZ | 52c | 119$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed MOUZ | 51c | 116$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 114.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed MOUZ | 52c | 112$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed MOUZ | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 98.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 95.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…3528backed MOUZ | 58c | 86.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ | 73c | 80.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed MOUZ | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 64.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked MOUZ | 72c | 62.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 61.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 60.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed MOUZ | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed MOUZ | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked MOUZ | 58c | 51.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed MOUZ | 49c | 49.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 46.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 44.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 41.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed MOUZ | 76c | 39.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 34.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed MOUZ | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 30.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed MOUZ | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked MOUZ | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…7b88backed MOUZ | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed MOUZ | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…d732backed MOUZ | 66c | 26.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed MOUZ | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked MOUZ | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed MOUZ | 70c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Series: Most kills?MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.