Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef84799cf52d815b0f8632e74f473e536d47234b19375340f8593f10b0cfa0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 51c | 181$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 50c | 154$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 51c | 126$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 49c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Series: Most kills?MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.