TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, AVULUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$184,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3719…2df0backed 1win58c13,464$7,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700.599055.6%50 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked AVULUS47c8,203$3,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,86753451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS27c5,401$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.7173841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS19c5,090$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.552,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed AVULUS2c4,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS1c3,751$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.546169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e2…b0a7backed 1win59c3,239$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.372548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed 1win63c2,915$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.9515946.5%74 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a8…2927backed AVULUS43c2,694$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.383228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed AVULUS42c2,379$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked AVULUS44c1,933$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.6714538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…affbbacked AVULUS10c1,800$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked 1win76c1,694$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 1win77c1,634$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4530138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked AVULUS10c1,563$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.833845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed AVULUS38c1,500$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.2432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed 1win67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.542161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed 1win78c1,305$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.0447660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed 1win45c1,270$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.76647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS28c1,098$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.9646535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed 1win72c1,038$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.286663.6%42 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked AVULUS40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed AVULUS56c984.95$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.248954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked 1win57c874.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9813558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked AVULUS41c837.03$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2779341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed 1win77c829.13$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.994949%24 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed AVULUS24c823.97$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.878540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9380…a275backed AVULUS39c805.61$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.63850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked AVULUS25c800.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed AVULUS17c752.16$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.691625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed 1win56c744$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.369955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed 1win67c704.99$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6535758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed 1win57c684.87$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.691070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa0…ca20backed 1win67c622.29$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.752653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf720…411dbacked AVULUS38c538.52$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.21040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed AVULUS56c525.86$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.2767853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a99…cedcbacked AVULUS22c489$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.58450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked AVULUS20c472$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5714121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win59c417.67$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed AVULUS26c399.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10437745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed AVULUS17c380$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.649133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb281…d32fbacked 1win80c344.52$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked AVULUS38c337.61$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd28f…23cabacked 1win57c335.14$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed AVULUS27c330.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.261020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked 1win66c311.11$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.732466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed AVULUS33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995060%30 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed 1win68c295.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.071428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-51.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked AVULUS32c275$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.22123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked 1win74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.273066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed AVULUS56c267.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed AVULUS28c254.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.328037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed AVULUS48c253.45$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.774223.8%10 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-50.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f3d…16b1backed 1win78c246$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a94…5e99backed 1win66c244.23$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.236159%36 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8a…0fc3backed 1win78c243$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed AVULUS62c223.82$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.777261.1%44 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed 1win64c223.46$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0561548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabd…8115backed AVULUS37c217.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed 1win76c216$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.849145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win72c209.69$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.934063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked 1win76c203.2$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7725348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed 1win20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked 1win67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…34f7backed AVULUS8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked 1win66c197.47$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.395841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed 1win56c183.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4814940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba10…e85ebacked 1win65c179.64$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.832147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed 1win68c169.92$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked 1win47c169.8$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.816665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa60…9b86backed AVULUS62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3d…e051backed AVULUS11c159.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17306.7%2 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed 1win61c151.81$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4320535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1099…2c19backed 1win44c149.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked AVULUS29c143.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.041520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked 1win70c142.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed 1win55c141.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3852243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win62c135.61$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0721062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed AVULUS35c131.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed AVULUS38c131.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd121…b0a5backed AVULUS21c129.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d6…0550backed 1win74c129.72$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.73771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+85.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e20…8e0ebacked 1win56c128.16$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed 1win48c128.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3510659.4%63 W · 43 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed 1win79c126.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked AVULUS40c123.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.921747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5565…7693backed AVULUS22c120.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked 1win73c117.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.812650%13 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS39c116.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6247748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked AVULUS24c110.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.87650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031f…01afbacked 1win71c108.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.498100%8 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdd0…4938backed 1win75c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed AVULUS20c103$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed AVULUS28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked AVULUS40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked 1win20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80879.2%8 W · 79 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed AVULUS41c97.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4043647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed AVULUS63c95.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed AVULUS42c91.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1720530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed 1win52c90$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.68440.5%34 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.