CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432ceda3068865e85e1dcc03e547b06a56d91d9674b4842e5cfcd4ef6a2be12c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof MOUZ NXT, AaB esport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AaB esport | 1c | 3,906$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed MOUZ NXT | 58c | 3,412$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.01 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc598…b4acbacked AaB esport | 21c | 1,406$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.8 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AaB esport | 31c | 887.43$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.66 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…9291backed AaB esport | 23c | 869.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed MOUZ NXT | 79c | 799.98$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 204 | 62.7%128 W · 76 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed MOUZ NXT | 62c | 451.02$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed AaB esport | 38c | 444.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AaB esport | 27c | 441.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AaB esport | 21c | 381.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked AaB esport | 44c | 341$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f22…b646backed AaB esport | 15c | 335.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked MOUZ NXT | 71c | 317$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed AaB esport | 23c | 316.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked AaB esport | 4c | 282.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed MOUZ NXT | 71c | 260.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed MOUZ NXT | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f94…0c78backed AaB esport | 45c | 199.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…6b53backed AaB esport | 32c | 116.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked AaB esport | 21c | 114.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 386 | 36%139 W · 247 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed AaB esport | 16c | 111.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AaB esport | 20c | 104.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed MOUZ NXT | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…58c0backed MOUZ NXT | 60c | 64.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed AaB esport | 18c | 61.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 60.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed AaB esport | 32c | 59.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a5…8bdbbacked MOUZ NXT | 67c | 55.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d6…ed47backed AaB esport | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked AaB esport | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed MOUZ NXT | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…78e5backed AaB esport | 27c | 49.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…cfeebacked AaB esport | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked MOUZ NXT | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 126 | 69%87 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked MOUZ NXT | 63c | 28.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…963bbacked MOUZ NXT | 80c | 26.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed MOUZ NXT | 78c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed MOUZ NXT | 80c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs AaB esport (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs AaB esport - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs AaB esport - Map 2 WinnerAaB esport won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.