TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Runa Team (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Runa Teamof Nigma Galaxy, Runa Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,655 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3450…6793backed Nigma Galaxy62c9,643$5,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,975.62650%13 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team47c5,861$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.331,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Runa Team48c5,432$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.6210338.8%40 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Nigma Galaxy54c4,895$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.9918452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Runa Team45c4,790$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.652,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Runa Team31c3,304$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.1211855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Runa Team33c2,687$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.154645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nigma Galaxy67c2,544$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.672356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Nigma Galaxy63c1,583$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002450%12 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Nigma Galaxy26c1,510$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.62133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Runa Team38c1,390$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.7962841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Nigma Galaxy1c1,111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Runa Team39c1,041$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.9736442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Nigma Galaxy41c1,035$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.942030%6 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Nigma Galaxy79c1,012$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Nigma Galaxy67c859$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.536854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team45c836.07$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Nigma Galaxy69c789.86$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.9413262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Runa Team26c694$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.151936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40249133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked Nigma Galaxy67c539.57$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Nigma Galaxy47c537.34$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Runa Team44c467.7$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.7614537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Runa Team30c391.57$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.295648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Runa Team32c307.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Nigma Galaxy61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18315653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90dc…5ba6backed Runa Team59c296.61$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.61850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Nigma Galaxy59c293.98$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.142347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Nigma Galaxy68c292.12$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.645756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Nigma Galaxy45c251.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.719246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Runa Team56c248.91$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.525558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Nigma Galaxy44c225.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.27157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Nigma Galaxy51c225$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.914244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Runa Team31c220.95$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5f…7fbfbacked Nigma Galaxy67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1344465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Nigma Galaxy80c172.1$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.568648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0e2…e7f9backed Runa Team33c155$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae0…ae55backed Nigma Galaxy67c155$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Runa Team35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4af…5050backed Nigma Galaxy68c147.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nigma Galaxy69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10091356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Runa Team69c142.13$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3616835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Nigma Galaxy77c139.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.41866.7%12 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Nigma Galaxy31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.120535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed Runa Team40c113.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.745950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeac8…bca4backed Runa Team59c107.03$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Runa Team48c101.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.886949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Runa Team24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7611145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Runa Team34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.991838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Runa Team33c90$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.33228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Nigma Galaxy68c82.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3814948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1963…8122backed Nigma Galaxy74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.29548.4%46 W · 49 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Nigma Galaxy69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Runa Team35c71.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4320339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Runa Team30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498155.6%45 W · 36 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8041…1987backed Nigma Galaxy70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+44.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Runa Team26c67.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Runa Team33c60.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0313557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Nigma Galaxy70c57.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402875%21 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac7…597ebacked Nigma Galaxy79c55.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Runa Team31c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x097f…df92backed Nigma Galaxy40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa754…7948backed Nigma Galaxy40c49.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Runa Team41c49.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4934063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf281…d4abbacked Nigma Galaxy42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Runa Team59c47.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed Nigma Galaxy79c45.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy45c44.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Runa Team33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.85052%26 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e79…089bbacked Runa Team34c39.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.293053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b6…a23ebacked Nigma Galaxy76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47aa…09e9backed Nigma Galaxy67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Nigma Galaxy70c35.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255777.2%44 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64ae…532bbacked Runa Team60c35.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.041266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b00…7cbbbacked Nigma Galaxy66c33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.783461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed Runa Team47c32.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.353145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed Runa Team48c31.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Runa Team34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa725…b6b8backed Nigma Galaxy69c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Nigma Galaxy67c28.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196867.6%46 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Runa Team47c27.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Nigma Galaxy68c27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.463735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7308…2b0abacked Nigma Galaxy71c26.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07aa…3440backed Nigma Galaxy68c26.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1b1…7d09backed Nigma Galaxy67c25.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Nigma Galaxy67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3c…e6cabacked Nigma Galaxy66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23167.7%21 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy67c18.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0170…38d9backed Nigma Galaxy76c17.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e57…41f0backed Nigma Galaxy69c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fba…dc55backed Nigma Galaxy69c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c42…6e3bbacked Nigma Galaxy80c12.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.