Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Runa Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1838696fdeb783929cc996f087f639bd268c47666aa38fe910268ab608bcc8f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Runa Teamof Nigma Galaxy, Runa Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Runa Team | 58c | 5,854$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,478.13 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Runa Team | 52c | 4,368$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.84 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 4,245$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.21 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 4,083$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.82 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 3,419$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 2,498$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Runa Team | 63c | 2,094$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.74 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 2c | 953.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Runa Team | 32c | 806.51$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.54 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Runa Team | 55c | 756.25$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 712.19$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.77 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 595.85$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.91 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Runa Team | 38c | 408$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.01 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 398$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 350.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 316.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Runa Team | 38c | 260.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Runa Team | 65c | 172.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 169.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 149.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Runa Team | 22c | 140$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Runa Team | 62c | 133.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 130.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 115.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 115$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Runa Team | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…71eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Runa Team | 43c | 84.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 56.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 54.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Runa Team | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 49.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 46.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Runa Team | 40c | 45.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 26.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…9f6dbacked Runa Team | 78c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Runa Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Runa Team (BO3)Runa Team won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Runa Team - Game 2 WinnerRuna Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.