Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Passion UA vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf536a77461b5ab5e1ee796788429aaa033ece68a20accdb6faf1ea902d65a3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Passion UA, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 1,953$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.52 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 1,860$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.16 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Passion UA | 43c | 1,515$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.64 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Passion UA | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Passion UA | 44c | 1,467$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.2 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 1,370$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Passion UA | 45c | 1,368$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.2 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 1,133$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.63 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Passion UA | 42c | 1,039$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 620.36$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.86 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Passion UA | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 567.44$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.67 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 503.47$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.7 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Passion UA | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Passion UA | 46c | 488.83$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.46 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Passion UA | 39c | 424.9$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 359.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.11 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 293$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 270.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Passion UA | 42c | 258.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…7706backed Passion UA | 41c | 255$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Passion UA | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Passion UA | 46c | 221.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 221.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…335cbacked Passion UA | 46c | 177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…20e5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 177$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f73…3931backed Passion UA | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…c0ecbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…1b2fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…9714backed Passion UA | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed Passion UA | 40c | 130.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Passion UA | 44c | 114.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Passion UA | 45c | 111.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Passion UA | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Passion UA | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Passion UA | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Passion UA | 47c | 84.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Passion UA | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…82b4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 73.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Passion UA | 46c | 66.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 64.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35db…d658backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Passion UA | 44c | 55.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Passion UA | 44c | 42.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…7c9abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b1…7d09backed Passion UA | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb631…d06bbacked Passion UA | 44c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea4…639dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…40cbbacked Passion UA | 44c | 23.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.