Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8564b4871c373023604b69bc9c8f807b2caa671d88303efa5f1d15be9e6ee413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 3,566$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.89 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 80c | 3,002$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.46 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f9…6910backed Under | 56c | 2,572$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 1,774$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 43c | 1,400$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 20c | 1,255$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.66 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 1,083$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.91 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 1,075$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.56 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 31c | 937.76$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 20c | 861.45$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.29 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 74c | 823.08$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 76c | 723.68$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 17c | 589.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Over | 63c | 575.29$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 38c | 519.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 18c | 457.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 24c | 441.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 32c | 424.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 388.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 21c | 378.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +170%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 247.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…28dabacked Under | 50c | 235.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 33c | 165.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 32c | 159.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 76c | 148$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 74c | 144.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 23c | 134.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 20c | 127.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 108.52$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…0fefbacked Over | 62c | 108.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 97.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 39c | 79.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 69c | 60.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 31c | 48.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 47.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked Over | 32c | 38.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 45c | 32.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Under | 56c | 31.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…c3bebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 75c | 24.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 77c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.